This is an assessment of which Syrian governorates (provinces) are most and least likely to be struck by the United States if a military strike on the Syrian government occurs. The map above is coded by color.
The governorate most likely to be struck is “Rif Dimashq” (rural Damascus), for to its proximity to the alleged chemical attack on Douma. This is where the majority of Syrian military infrastructure used to attack the Eastern region is located. Various ammunition dumps, command centers, and six air bases are located in this vital region, which is sure to be struck. Damascus city is someone less likely to be struck, as there are more densely populated civilian areas here. However, if any strike on key political or military command infrastructure takes place, it would be here.
It is quite possible that the US targets Homs governorate as well. This is the location of the US missile strike on Shayrat airbase last year. There are a total of four airbases including Shayrat (which is still operational) here, which would be valuable targets in any potential strike. However, due to its distance from the alleged chemical attack on Douma, it is someone less likely to be struck.
It it is also feasible that the governorates of Latakia and Tartus are hit, especially in a larger, more comprehensive attack. These provinces are key regime strongholds which house vital command infrastructure, and Latakia is home to President Bashar al-Assad’s hometown of Qardaha. Again, these areas are far away from the chemical attack in Ghouta, so they would only be hit in an extensive attack.
There is a chance that the governorate of Daraa in the south could be struck. This province is on a key front line with the few remaining US-backed Free Syrian Army rebels in the country, and attacking this region would also improve Israel’s standing along the Golan Heights frontline.
The last remaining possibility is Deir Ezzor governorate. This province has been struck by the United States multiple times in the past, and it could be struck again, seeing as it borders the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces on a key frontline and is home to most of Syria’s oil and gas reserves. America also dislikes the Iranian land supply route to Hezbollah which is provided by this governorate.
The governorates of Idlib, Raqqa, and Quneitra, which have little Syrian Army presence, are not likely to be struck at all. Aleppo and Hama are also safe, as they are far away from the area of hostility. Suwayda, despite being controlled by the Syrian government, is almost certain not to be attacked, as it is a mainly peaceful province which is not important to the Syrian government’s war effort.